Premier League, White Hart Lane, Sunday 2nd October 2011. Kick off 4pm. Sky Sports HD1 & 1
It’s North London Derby time again. On paper Spurs should have this game sewn up before kick-off. Football however is still played on grass and therefore the form book and comparative squad strengths go out of the window. Something Spurs themselves, have proven many times over the last 10-15 years. Sure, until the last couple of seasons there weren’t many Lilywhite victories, but there were more than enough hard fought draws against a team that was mostly far superior to Spurs. God that’s hard to admit, even harder to commit it to the internet. Of course, that’s not so much the case anymore; in fact it’s quite easy to argue that Spurs have the stronger first team available and probably the edge on overall squad depth.
But again, none of that matters. Arsenal and their manager especially, are under pressure and they will know that a big victory on Sunday will appease their fans immensely. For many Spurs players, this will be the first time that they take to the pitch as genuine favourites for a derby and it will be interesting to see how they react to that. Harry Redknapp will need to be on top of his game to make sure his players know exactly what is at stake and the way they must approach this game.
It’s hard not to be confident of success, sure Manchester City’s feeder club are coming off the back of 3 succesive victories, but they were against League 1 Shrewsbury, 10 man Bolton and a poor Olimpiacos side. Spurs meanwhile have put Liverpool to the sword, buried the ‘W’ team hoodoo with wins away to Wolves and Wigan and also seen the reserves show spirit to beat Shamrock on Thursday night.
Arsenal’s defensive woes are well documented, with Olimpiacos unlucky not to get more than one goal midweek and Blackburn – the worst team in the Premier League in this blogs opinion – putting 4 past them recently. And it would be remiss not to mention the 8 that Manchester United buried at Old Trafford.Their new centreback, Per Mertesacker, is a big lump who is not easily beaten in the air, but is one of the most immobile footballers ever. If Spurs can display the kind of slick passing and movement that tore apart Liverpool and from the first half at Wigan, the big man could have a derby baptism of fire. His partner Koscielny is capable of going from the sublime to the ridiculous, Spurs will hope for the latter. Spurs also need to try and expose the flanks, Bacary Sagna remains one of the leagues best right backs but Gareth Bale on top form can give him nightmares. On the other side, Kieran Gibbs is a potential weak link, Redknapp may be tempted to start Aaron Lennon and look to use true width. Then again, it’ll be hard to change from the team and formation that started at Wigan. If that’s the case, one man right wing, Kyle Walker will be the one to test Gibbs.
One compelling reason to stick with the 4-2-3-1 is that Scott Parker and Sandro will give Spurs a supremely solid base to nullify the creativity of Arteta and Ramsay. This will hopefully allow Bale, Luka Modric and Rafa Van der Vaart to swamp Song – the least defensively minded defensive midfielder – and get at their suspect back four.
The man who will look to prosper from the creativity in Spurs midfield is of course, ex Arsenal man and Spurs new goalscoring hero, Emanuel Adebayor. Sure to be a target of abuse from the travelling support, this is the kind of game on which Adebayor thrives. He will look to take that abuse and throw it back in the faces of fans that used to adore him. Adebayor’s impact at Spurs cannot be understated, the way he created the first at Wigan is something Spurs have lacked since Berbatov and Keane were doing their thing a few years back. His all round game is up there with the very best in the Premier League and Spurs midfield are able to supply him with the ammunition to put this game out of Arsenal’s reach. Nothing will give Adebayor greater satisfaction than putting one over on his old team mates and he could well be the key to a Spurs victory.
At the other end, one of his former strike partners, Robin van Persie, poses the biggest threat to Spurs chances. The Dutchman appears to be taking it upon himself to rescue Arsenal’s season and he always seems to score against Spurs. However if there is one man who can keep him under lock and key, it’s the imperious Ledley King. On his weekly outings this season King has shown the kind of form that make him the best English centre back for a very long time, maybe as far back as Bobby Moore. His developing partnership with Younes Kaboul is encouraging news for Spurs and has helped the French international grow in confidence himself. With Benoit Assou-Ekotto hopefully back at 100% and his Wigan error forgotten – if not forgiven by his harshest and unfair critics – he can keep Walcott quiet. On the other wing Kyle Walker will look to cement his growing reputation and keep Gervinho from posing a threat. Both goalkeepers are also in fine form. Brad Friedel has given Spurs a commanding and dominant presence that Gomes never could. His opposite number Szczesny is, van Persie aside, the only Arsenal player to be showing consistently good form, but with his defence often pulling ‘Keystone Kops’ moments that may not be enough to keep Spurs forwards at bay.
Additional: Since publishing this preview it’s been announced that Harry Redknapp has won the September Manager of the Month award. Always happy to give credit where it’s due, I’d like to congratulate the boss on this achievement. Let’s hope the curse of the award doesn’t strike and that the team continue to perform.
My Prediction
Even writing all this, I find it hard not to be incredibly confident about Sunday. Yet something nags away at me and says that they will get flukey and snatch a draw, or worse. I hope that’s just the eternal Spurs pessimist in me and that the form book and squad strength will stand up. I’m going to stay pessimistic and predict a 2-2 draw and hope that I am happily proven wrong.
COYS
Stuart Watts ( @Studub on Twitter )
The Odds
Spurs win: 11-10
Draw: 12-5
Arsenal win: 5-2
My prediction (2-2): 14-1
First Spurs Scorer:
Adebayor: 4-1
Defoe: 6-1
Van der Vaart: 7-1
Free bets at Freebetssport.com

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